It becomes increasingly clear to me that Mike German has learned to read the writing on the wall. I have no doubt that he is going to announce his retirement from the leadership of the Lib Dem Assembly group. The irony for me is that I have always thought Mike to be a very able man - even if unelectable. And I've never been absolutely sure why. All he needs now to finalise his decision to retire is the unwavering support of Lembit Opik.
This is very bad news for Eleanor Burnham and Peter Black (assuming Peter wants to be the leader - of which I am not convinced). If Mike stands down, it opens the door for the very capable Jenny Randerson and the 'Rainbow' killer, Kirsty Williams. Its very early days, and reading the Lib Dems is like betting on plastic duck racing - but I'm going to take a punt on Jenny. In the interests of fairness, I should add that we should be deeply grateful to the Lib Dems for allowing its membership the opportunity to express a view on the leadership of their party. Its rather old fashioned to be quite so democratic. Who knows - it may be catching.